Anne Chapman « Dynamic Trader – Trend Trading Blog

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Dollar Finds Resistance Cluster

Wednesday, December 1st, 2010

Good morning, traders

The Dollar Index has had an active few months and currently sits at an interesting conjuncture which is shown as the shaded area on the chart.

In the last few days price has cleared the figure, breaking above 8, but is now sandwiched between that and the VI so a continuation up is not as clearcut as it might be. In addition to the VI price is also approaching a Fib reversal level and there are other factors adding to the likelihood of a further move down rather than continuing the more recent upward trend.

So the recent bounce up has a cluster resistance of a previous resistance/support, two leg extension and VI. If todays bar closes as a bearish engulfing candle or similiar, we might see a move down. If not, price may try to reach the VI so it may be worth waiting until this move has played out before taking a trade. Also bear in mind that Stochastics is showing a false bar in the longer-term down trend.

Good dynamic trading…

Anne Chapman
Dynamic Trader

Tags: dollar index
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Downtrend Continuation

Wednesday, November 24th, 2010

Good morning, traders

A pretty good chart pattern is forming on the EURAUD. Price has been in a downward trend for some time, with a slight hicup in May. Since then the trendline has been strong, as shown by the red line on the graph. However, more recently price has been squeezed as longterm support has kept price from falling further.

Now price is right on the support again and, with the overall trend being down, we might see it break down. To support this analysis, there is a false bar on Stochastics, meaning we should weight the September rally less than the overall trend.

If you would like to short this pair, then we would recommend using S3 to enter and manage the trade as MoBo has already triggered.

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Good dynamic trading…

Anne Chapman

Tags: euraud
Posted in forex | Comments Off

Dollar Index Hits Fibonacci

Monday, September 6th, 2010

Good morning traders,

There is a lot of confusion in the media about the markets right now, no-one seems confident to call what will happen next. That’s why we advise you not to listen to it and stick to technical analysis where we just look at what is happening with price.

The Dollar Index is showing a number of clear indications that a downward move is imminent.

Firstly, there was the H&S pattern (May through July) and price moved cleanly down to the previous support which was also at a strong figure. From this move priced pulled back to the ‘tried and tested’ Fibonacci 38% level, shown on the chart below as the red shaded area (trading room members will understand the purpose of the red shaded area a little more). Finally, the Stochastic False Bar moved to the over sold area, indicating the trend has likely reversed since the H&S (prior to which the trend was up) into a down trend. Stochastic is also now showing overbought suggesting further movement to the downside since the recent pullback. However, while agressive traders may want to enter a trade at an earlier stage, it may be more prudent to wait to confirm that price breaks through the strong level of support at the figure.

Good dynamic trading…

Anne Chapman

Tags: dollar index
Posted in forex | Comments Off

General Mills Trading Opportunity

Friday, August 27th, 2010

Hello traders,

There are still few opportunities in currency at the moment, my preferred medium to trade, so I have cast my net wider to look at stocks.

GIS, below, is a US stock we have traded in the trading room previously. Looking at the longer-term chart you can see a strong level of resistance just above current price. Over the last few months price has tried to push up to the $40 mark but in the last couple of days it has has fallen back down and is now below both resistance and the VI.

In addition, the downward move from the June high is not indicative of a pullback as Stochastics showed a false bar at the end of the oversold move. So the more recent overbought Stochastics is indicating that a move to the downside is the more likely but as always we should let price make it’s move.

Members of the trading room should use the right strategy to capture any upcoming move.

Good stock market trading…

Anne Chapman
Dynamic Trader

Tags: gis
Posted in stocks | No Comments »

USDDKK Resistance Zone

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

Hello to all you patient traders – at last we are beginning to some movement on the currency markets although it is early days.

However, I did like the look of USDDKK (see below) which has presented a shorting opportunity.

As you can see from the chart the previous level of May support is currenty acting as resistance. In addition price is holding below the RN.

Stochastics on Advanced Get has a handy, unique feature called the false bar which is not showing a signal on the currently overbought indicator, suggesting price could make a reverse move soon and head on down rather than continue on its more recent uptrend.

You may find it interesting, when you do your own analysis, to zoom out to include more data – I think you’ll then find further strengthening of the S/R zone to add to the reasons I have decided to go short if I get triggered into this trade.

Powered by Advanced Get

Good forex trading…

Anne Chapman
Dynamic Trader

Tags: usddkk
Posted in forex | No Comments »

Priceline Will Breakout

Thursday, July 8th, 2010

Good morning traders

Sorry for my lack of recent updates, it’s been quite quiet on the currency front so I have been looking for trades elsewhere. I would like to revisit Priceline (PCLN) from a previous analysis shown on this trading blog and one that shows some potential based on Javid’s high probability trading update.

PCLN (Advanced Get weekly chart below) has been in a good upward trend for several years (confirmed by the Stochastics) but recently suffered a steep pullback and also a dead cross. This will have come as no surprise to Dynamic Traders as you can clearly see the MACD Divergence shown by the blue arrows on the chart.

The pullback shows price is now at an important area. It has clearly broken the recent, strong trend line (shown in black) and the $200 mark. It is currently hanging around in the MOB zone (circled in orange) with recent Stochastics showing oversold, suggesting to some it may bounce back up to continue the long-term trend.

However, the trade I am more likely to take is if it breaks to the downside. Despite the oversold Stochastic there are more indications that price will continue down to the next MOB target which, if it transpires, will be a healthy $40 move but it will have the fgure to deal with along the way.

Advanced Get chart with eSignal data.

Good dynamic trading.

Anne Chapman

Tags: pcln
Posted in stocks | No Comments »

GBPUSD Stochastics Overbought

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Good morning traders,

Trading opportunities are beginning to appear en masse again, generally continuing in the direction of the previous trend. This is giving us some good agressive entry points.

One of those could be the GBPUSD. This has been on a good downward trend for several months but more recently has experienced a multi-slope pullback, as can be seen on the chart below.

I have highlighted two areas of interest; one on the chart and the second on the Stochastic indictator. First, the red shaded area on the chart shows an area of resistance. Price could hover in and around this zone before breaking either up or down. However, the overbought Stochastic zone (also shaded in red) has occurred in a downtrend which is a strong indication that the pullback has lost momentum and the more dominant downtrend is likely to prevail.

The final indicators on the chart are the displaced moving averages. These can be used identify a mechanical entry point, rather than choosing a random point at which to enter a short trade.

Advanced Get chart and data by ESignal.

Like Richard and Javid, I have also been triggered into the EURUSD.

Good forex trading.

Anne Chapman

Tags: gbpusd
Posted in forex | No Comments »