Author Archive

Crude Oil on the horizon

Sunday, November 20th, 2011

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are all having a good weekend. I am quite a fan of commodities as they generally tend to trend well. One of my favourites is Crude Oil and Sonia did a great recent blog on it – you can read her analysis here.

Thanksgiving is upon us next week and the consumer sentiment of the festive period will be reflected in the markets

The weekly chart below shows the larger trend is up (arguable as there is a lot of sideways movement in there as well, nevertheless still with an upward bias) since 2009. Since May this year price has done a pull back reaching just below the value index. Price then provided a great double bottom sign and started to move back upward. Note the perfect Fibonacci breather level before the move back up!

The reason I wanted to talk about this today is because price has broken through the VI and the 10000 area which is quite a significant sign. It looks as though a retest of the VI is in progress and if it decides to then continue back upwards then there is a nice long opportunity awaiting for those who wish to take it.

There are a number of points one may wish to enter into a long trade at but I will leave that calculation to you based on your rules, break out strategy and risk appetite.

 

Patient Trading

Bijal Shah

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coffee break

Tuesday, November 15th, 2011

Good Evening Traders,

A break from forex tonight and a fresh look at commodities and coffee. I have squeezed the data to provide a better view of price action.

Having reached an all time high in May this year, price has been sailing downwards and has been below the value index for a good couple of months. Support has been found at the 22000 area (previously resistance) on more than one occasion since early October and price nearly went back for a retest of the value index just falling short of a tag.

Given the pace at which price has been moving (i.e. nothing too dramatic) it should likely continue in the current direction of trend. If this is the case there may soon be an opportunity to enter short. One for the watchlist.

Patient Trading

Bijal Shah

Triple top…

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

Price on the GBPNZD chart has been coming into an upward sloping wedge and is now showing signs of what could be a triple top in a downtrend. This is yet to be confirmed, should price break the figure, the trendline support and eventually the current low.

MACD guidance indicates a possible downward movement in price given the divergence on the histogram and the signal lines. In addition, one could take into account the resistance area and the candle patterns. At this stage however, the signs are not strong enough to take a trade and further confirmation will be awaited prior to entering the market on this pair.

 

Patient Trading

Bijal Shah

NZDUSD

Wednesday, November 9th, 2011

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

While the markets are still consolidating or deciding where to head to it has not been clear cut to post a blog and provide thoughts on a currency or commodity chart.

I have posted the NZDUSD chart below as today’s bar is considering breaking a trendline or may bounce off it. Price has been in a general uptrend with a recent pull back since August. Price fell below the value index but has not remained below it for long periods of time. Because of this uncertain behaviour it is probably a good idea to wait for price to provide a definitive guide by either breaking below the current low for a short or a good clean break up for a continuation of trend.

Patient Trading

Bijal Shah

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBPNZD update

Tuesday, November 1st, 2011

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are all well and having a good week so far. Apologies for my blog absence last week, I am travelling and intended to post however, I have had very limited internet connectivity in some of the areas I have been in and therefore was unable to do any blogs.

I thought I would do a post/update on the GBPNZD. Price has not done a great deal since my last post apart from continuing in a bit of a upward consolidation and what looks like a squeeze between two trend lines. The weekly chart shows the trend is very much bearish and there is nothing to suggest an imminent change. However, price is coming up to resistance area along with figure which may mean this might be the push needed to continue to start its way back downwards.

The below daily chart shows a little more detail relating to what I said above and you can see the channel more clearly. Price has managed to break through the daily VI on one occasion however, did a pop and drop and has not managed to go up any further. Given the advent of NFP this week we may not see the norm of what is to continue but we will monitor this pair and take appropriate action when the signals present themselves.

Good Trading

Bijal Shah

Awaiting direction on GBPNZD

Sunday, October 16th, 2011

Greetings Dynamic Traders,

Hope you all had a great weekend.

My blog tonight is on the GBPNZD. Price has been in a steady downtrend and has provided nice profits for many of us this year. Since August price found support around 1.8500 and has bounced up, testing the value index on two occasions. More recently going through the value index but  finding resistance around 2.0500 and then retreating downwards again.

The trend lines on the chart below suggest price coming into a squeeze formation. It is not unusual, as many of you know for price to gather it’s breath after a big move in any direction and it looks like this is what price is doing.

Seeing price fail to break up on two occasions could mean that there is a good chance that it will continue down once the uncertainty/consolidation is out of its system. I will be keeping an eye on this pair to enter short once the low has been broken.

Patient Trading

Bijal Shah

New Zealand Dollar at VI

Wednesday, October 12th, 2011

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

New Zealand Dollar has made the pick for tonight’s blog. Price has broken below the value index and come back to re-test it twice. The most recent tag is from today’s bar. The last several candles show a bullish bias. That said, price is at the value index, close to a major figure, previous resistance, and a Fib breather level. All these confluences may have an impact on price continuing in the bullish manner it has been recently and therefore it is worth keeping an eye on it to see if a reversal is going to be in play.

It might be worth waiting for the low to be taken out before entering a short trade.

Patient Trading

Bijal Shah